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International Journal of Sustainable Agricultural Research

December 2020, Volume 7, 4, pp 287-303

Exploring the Climate Change Impact on Major Food Crops of Bangladesh - A Time Series Analysis

Md. Mursalin Hossain Rabbi

,

Nazia Tabassum

Md. Mursalin Hossain Rabbi 1 ,

Nazia Tabassum 1 
  1. MSS in Economics, Bangladesh University of Professionals, Bangladesh. 1

Pages: 287-303

DOI: 10.18488/journal.70.2020.74.287.303

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Article History:

Received: 21 September, 2020
Revised: 19 October, 2020
Accepted: 30 October, 2020
Published: 16 November, 2020

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Abstract:

This paper tries to explore the dynamic relationship between the yield of major crops in Bangladesh (aus, amas, boro, wheat and potato) and climate change (average rainfall, average maximum temperature and average minimum temperature). Graphical visualization shows that, there is increasing trend in average annual minimum temperature and average annual minimum rainfall, while there is decreasing trend of average annual maximum temperature. We applied autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) cointegration method in order to study the dynamic relationship. The paper finds long run dynamic link between yield of aus rice and average rainfall and average minimum temperature. We have found short run dynamic relationship for yield of aman rice, boro rice and potato. However, we do not find any dynamic relationship has been found for yield of wheat with the variables of climate change. After estimation the dynamic relationship, we ensure there is no serial correlation among residuals using Breusch-Godfrey test and models are normally distributed using histogram and Jarque-Bera test. Finally, we ensure the stability of the models applying CUSUM test.
Contribution/ Originality
This study contributes to the existing literatures of climate change and its impact on yield of major food crops in Bangladesh with more recent and extended dataset and more logical statistical analysis based on global literatures. This is our original work.

Keywords:

Climate change, Food crops, Time series, Crops yield, Dynamic relation, Temperature, Rainfall, Bangladesh.

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Statistics:

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Funding:

This study received no specific financial support.

Competing Interests:

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Acknowledgement:

The authors heartly appreciate the guidance from honorable Assistant Professor of Bangladesh University of Professionals, Nahin Rahman, Lecturer Adib Ahmed, Lecturer Abdul M. Khan and Lecturer Faryana Rafiq.

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