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Exchange Rate Pass-through to Prices: VAR Evidence for Albania

Adelajda Matuka

Adelajda Matuka 1


  1. Department of Economics and Law, University of Macerata, Ph.D in Quantitative Methods for Economic Policy, Italy. 1

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on PubMed

Pages: 303-315

DOI: 10.18488/journal.62.2019.65.303.315

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Article History:

Received: 21 June, 2019
Revised: 17 July, 2019
Accepted: 26 September, 2019
Published: 11 November, 2019


Abstract:

This study estimates exchange rate pass-through to prices in Albania using a Vector Autoregressive model from 2000Q1 to 2017 Q1 following Cholesky decomposition. We perform an Augmented Dickey-Fuller test and Phillips-Pherron test to ensure the stationarity of the variables and we estimate the impulse-response functions and the variance decomposition of import, producer, consumer prices and interest rate to oil price /exchange rate shocks. Impulse-response functions indicate an incomplete pass-through of exchange rate to prices and the highest response is of consumer prices and interest rates. Variance decomposition indicates that the variance of import prices is explained by growth rate, its shocks and oil prices shocks. The variance of producer prices is explained by its own shocks, real GDP rate and interest rate whilst consumer prices are explained by its innovations, GDP rate and exchange rate. In order to confirm our results, we order the interest rate before the exchange rate and the findings do not change from the previous results. We perform diagnostic tests for the presence of autocorrelation and the stability of our model and the results show that we fail to reject the null hypothesis for serial autocorrelation and all the roots lie within the companion matrix. However, there is evidence on non-normality in our VAR residuals, but this does not violate our analysis.
Contribution/ Originality
We estimate the pass-through using recent data and we add producer prices in our VAR model, which to our best knowledge has not been captured in the existing pass-through literature for Albania.

Keywords:

Exchange rate, Pass-through effect, Inflation, Vector autoregressive.

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Statistics:

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Funding:

This study received no specific financial support.

Competing Interests:

The author declares that there are no conflicts of interests regarding the publication of this paper.

Acknowledgement:


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( 343 ) Measuring Efficiency in Banks: A Brief Survey on Non – Parametric Technique (Data Envelopment Analysis)
( 344 ) Land Use/Land Cover Change and its Effects on Bamboo Forest in Benishangul Gumuz Region, Ethiopia
( 345 ) Education and Income Relationship in Turkey
( 348 ) Acquisition of Personal Assets Through Loan Bank and Commercial Credit: What’s the Best Option?
( 349 ) Does Managerial Emotional Biases Affect Debt Maturity Preference? Bayesian Network Method: Evidence from Tunisia
( 351 ) Development of the National Economies and the Foreign Trade Relations between Ukraine and Bulgaria (In the Period 2005-2014)
( 354 ) Determinants of Import Demand Functions of Pakistan: An ARDL Bound Testing Approach
( 355 ) Empirical Evidence on Municipal Tax Policy and Firm Growth
( 356 ) Emotional Workgroup Performance and Group Effectiveness Egyptian Context
( 357 ) The Effect of Public Debt on Domestic Product and Unemployment (An Empirical Study on the Palestinian Economy)
( 358 ) The Lead-Lag Relationships between Construction Investment and GDP: Granger Causality Tests and Impulse Responses Using Japanese Data
( 359 ) Forecasting-Based Carry Trade Using Pegged Currency: A Case of Omani Rial
( 360 ) The Indirect Impact of Overconfidence on the Performance of Tunisian Firms Through their Financing Structure
( 362 ) The Effect of Access and Quality of Education on Economic Development in Botswana
( 363 ) Quality of Accounting Reporting After the IFRS Adoption in Nigeria
( 364 ) Testing the PPP Using Unit Root Tests with Structural Breaks: Evidence from Politically Unstable Arab Countries
( 366 ) Impact of FDI on Environmental Quality of China
( 368 ) A Theoretical Analysis Upon the Environmental Health and Justice Issue: A Case Study for a Comparison Between G20s Unitary and Federal Members
( 369 ) Academic Mobility for Engineering and Technology Graduates in Africa: Lessons and Experiences from the Implementation
( 370 ) A Review of Cross Border Higher Education in Africa: Focus on Graduate Level Training in Engineering and Technology
( 371 ) Decoupling Analysis of Bulgaria’s Agriculture
( 372 ) Determining Rural Poverty in Manga Del Cura – Ecuador Non Delimited Zone