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Uncertainties in Global Economic Policy and Nigerias Export Earnings

Balakeffi, Ladi Raulatu

,

Oboh, Victor Ugbem

,

Ujunwa Augustine

,

Fwangkwal, Mwanji Paul

Balakeffi, Ladi Raulatu 1

Oboh, Victor Ugbem 2

Ujunwa Augustine 3 Fwangkwal, Mwanji Paul 3 

  1. Deputy Director, Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Nigeria 1

  2. Assistant Director, Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Nigeria 2

  3. Economist, Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Nigeria 3

Pages: 23-38

DOI: 10.18488/journal.62.2019.61.23.38

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Article History:

Received: 19 October, 2018
Revised: 26 November, 2018
Accepted: 02 January, 2019
Published: 12 February, 2019


Abstract:

This study examined the contemporaneous effect of global economic policy uncertainty on Nigeria’s export earnings, using Nigerian data that spans from 1997 to 2016. The theoretical framework relied on the contemporaneous theory of external vulnerability, which posits that macroeconomic shocks from dominant economies could be transferred to lesser dominant economies through international linkages of global economies and financial market. To achieve objective, this study employed the ARDL and GARCH estimation techniques, to estimate the effect of global economic policy uncertainty on Nigeria’s export earnings. The results revealed the adverse effect of global economic policy uncertainty on Nigeria’s export earnings, affirming the vulnerability of Nigeria’s export earnings to external shocks. The practical implication of the finding is that developing economies could insulate their domestic macroeconomic environment from external shocks by diversifying their economies. Importantly, Nigeria should increase diversification of her export base as a coping strategy for protecting against the contemporaneous effect of global economic uncertainties.
Contribution/ Originality
The study contributes to existing literature focusing on export earnings, which is a major source of vulnerability to external shocks in Nigeria. The use of global economic policy uncertainty index appears novel, compare to previous studies that use global output and inflation.

Keywords:

Global economy, Policy uncertainty, Export earnings, ARDL, GARCH, Nigeria.

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Funding:

This study received no specific financial support.

Competing Interests:

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Acknowledgement:

All authors contributed equally to the conception and design of the study.

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