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International Journal of Mathematical Research

February 2017, Volume 6, 2, pp 60-68

Seasonal Time Series Analysis on Export Performance of Hawassa Green Wood Flower Production (SARIMA Model)

Mulugeta Aklilu Zewdie

,

Yohannes Yibabe

Mulugeta Aklilu Zewdie 1

Yohannes Yibabe 2

  1. Department of Statistics, College of Natural and Computational Sciences, Mekelle University, Ethiopia 1

  2. Department of Statistics, Mathematical and Physical Sciences, Hawassa University, Ethiopia 2

Pages: 60-68

DOI: 10.18488/journal.24.2017.62.60.68

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Article History:

Received: 26 June, 2017
Revised: 30 October, 2017
Accepted: 10 November, 2017
Published: 18 December, 2017


Abstract:

This study focuses in determining the trend and seasonality export performance of stem rose flower at Hawassa Green Wood based on five year monthly data. The data was obtained from secondary and primary source and includes from January 2006/7 to December 2010/11. Both descriptive and inferential Statistical methods of analysis are used to analyses the data. The analysis is done by using Minitab statistical soft ware. The methods of interests are trend analysis and Box-Jenkins SARIMA models. The trend for this data shows an increasing trend however seasonal fluctuation occurs. SARIMA (0, 1, 2) (0, 1, 1) are the selected Box-Jenkins potential model for this data and by using this model forecasted two years ahead.

Contribution/ Originality
This study shows the application of Stochastic Mathematical Model to Real Problems

Keywords:

Floriculture, Trend SARIMA, Forecasting.

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Reference:

[1]         Ethiopian Producer Exporters Association, "Final Report AA Ethiopia " 2003.

[2]         Ministry of Trade and Industry Annual Report Ethiopia, "Ethiopia 2011 at AU Conference of the Minister of Trade AA," 2011.

[3]         B. J. Peter and D. A. Richard, Introduction to time series and forecasting, 2nd ed.: Springer Texts in Statistics, 2002.

[4]         G. Box and G. Jenkins, Time series analysis: Forecasting and control. San Francisco: Holden-Day.dd, 1976.

[5]         W. Vandele, "Applied time series and box –Jenkins models," 1983.

[6]         H. Richard and S. Robert, Applied time series modelling and forecasting: John Wiley & Sons Ltd, 2003.

[7]         W. A. Fuller, "Introduction to Time Series," 1976.

[8]         Wei, Time series analysis univariate and multivariate methods: Congress Catalog Publication, 2006.

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Funding:

This study received no specific financial support.

Competing Interests:

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Acknowledgement:

First Thanks and Praise to the Living triune God who guided, provided and sustained me with wisdom, courage and perseverance throughout this journey, next i would like to thanks the Manager of Hawassa Green Wood for their kind cooperation on data collection and 3rdly my Family ,Y2 and Abnet G.

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