International Journal of Hydrology Research

Published by: Conscientia Beam
Online ISSN: Pending
Print ISSN: Pending
Quick Submission    Login/Submit/Track

Recent Articles

Estimation of Water Stress in Guinea and Sudano-Sahelian Ecological Zones of Nigeria Under Climate Change and Population Growth

Pages: 1-16
Find References

Finding References

Estimation of Water Stress in Guinea and Sudano-Sahelian Ecological Zones of Nigeria Under Climate Change and Population Growth

Search :
Google Scholor
Search :
Microsoft Academic Search

DOI: 10.18488/journal.108.2020.51.1.16

Salihu A. C. , Abdulkadir A , Nsofor G. N. , Otache, M. Y.

Export to    BibTeX   |   EndNote   |   RIS

[1]          H. Florence, J. Boé, M. Déqué, A. Ducharne, S. Gascoin, A. Hachour, E. Martin, C. Pagé, E. Sauquet, and L. Terray, "Impact of climate change on the hydrogeology of two basins in northern France," Climatic Change, vol. 121, pp. 771-785, 2013. Available at:

[2]          Z. W. Felix, G. T. Yengoh, and A. Tom, "Seasonal migration and settlement around Lake Chad: Strategies for control of resources in an increasingly drying Lake," Resources, vol. 6, pp. 1-17, 2017. Available at:

[3]          A. Umesh and N. Pouyan, "Impacts of climate change on water resources in Malawi," Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, vol. 21, p. 05016026, 2016.

[4]          S. L. Gebre, K. Tadele, and B. G. Mariam, "Potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology and water resources availability of didessa catchment, Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia," Journal of Geology and Geosciences, vol. 4, p. 193, 2015.

[5]          A.-K. Mohamed, "Water for development and development for water: Realizing the sustainable development goals (SDGs) vision," Aquatic Procedia, vol. 6, pp. 106-110, 2016. Available at:

[6]          A. Babagana, "The impacts of global climate change in Africa: The Lake Chad, adaptation and vulnerability," 2017.

[7]          O. Agumagu and M. Todd, "Modelling the climatic variability in the Niger Delta Region: Influence of climate change on hydrology," Journal of Earth Science & Climatic Change, vol. 6, p. 1, 2015.

[8]          J. Babatolu and R. Akinnubi, "Influence of climate change in Niger River Basin development authority area on Niger Runoff, Nigeria," Journal of Earth Science & Climatic Change, vol. 5, pp. 1-8, 2014. Available at:

[9]          S. Ojoye, A. O. Sulyman, and T. I. Yahaya, "Climate change and adaptation strategies to water resources in some parts of Sudano-Sahelian Zone of Nigeria," Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies & Management, vol. 9, pp. 326 – 338, 2016. Available at:

[10]        D. Yunana, A. Shittu, S. Ayuba, E. Bassah, and W. Joshua, "Climate change and lake water resources in Sub-Saharan Africa: Case study of lake Chad and lake Victoria," Nigerian Journal of Technology, vol. 36, pp. 648-654, 2017. Available at:

[11]        P. S. Esther, E. Kodra, K. Steinhaeuser, and A. R. Ganguly, "Estimating future global per capita water availability based on changes in climate and population," Computers & Geosciences, vol. 42, pp. 79-86, 2012. Available at:

[12]        M. Demircan, H. Gürkan, O. Eskioğlu, H. ARABACI, and M. Coşkun, "Climate change projections for Turkey: Three models and two scenarios," Turkey Journal of Water Science and Management, vol. 1, pp. 22-43, 2017. Available at:

[13]        A. AbdulKadir, M. Usman, and A. Shaba, "An integrated approach to delineation of the ecoclimatic zones in Northern Nigeria," Journal of Ecology and the Natural Environment, vol. 7, pp. 247-255, 2015. Available at:

[14]        T. Chai and R. R. Draxler, "Root mean square error (RMSE) or mean absolute error (MAE)?–Arguments against avoiding RMSE in the literature," Geoscientific Model Development, vol. 7, p. 1247 1250, 2014. Available at:

[15]        S. Shrestha and A. Y. Htut, "Land use and climate change impacts on the hydrology of the Bago River Basin, Myanmar," Environmental Modeling & Assessment, vol. 21, pp. 819-833, 2016. Available at: 10.1007/s10666-016-9511-9.

[16]        N. Khan, S. Shahid, K. Ahmed, T. Ismail, N. Nawaz, and M. Son, "Performance assessment of general circulation model in simulating daily precipitation and temperature using multiple gridded datasets," Water, vol. 10, p. 1793, 2018. Available at:

[17]        R. Nurmohamed and D. Peter, "The impact of climate change and climate variability on the agricultural sector in Nickerie District," Journal of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences, vol. 6, pp. 51-65, 2017. Available at:

[18]        J. F. Escarcha, J. A. Lassa, E. P. Palacpac, and K. K. Zander, "Understanding climate change impacts on water buffalo production through farmers’ perceptions," Climate Risk Management, vol. 20, pp. 50-63, 2018. Available at:

[19]        C. Fullarton, T. C. Draper, N. Phillips, B. P. de Lacy Costello, and A. Adamatzky, "Belousov–Zhabotinsky reaction in liquid marbles," Journal of Physics: Materials, vol. 2, p. 015005, 2019. Available at:

[20]        J. Schewe, J. D. Heinke, I. Gerten, N. W. Haddeland, D. B. Arnell, R. Clark, S. Dankers, B. Eisner, F. J. Fekete, S. N. Colón-González, H. Gosling, X. Kim, Y. Liu, F. T. Masaki, Y. Portmann, T. Satoh, Q. Stacke, Y. Tang, D. Wada, T. Wisser, K. Albrecht, F. Frieler, L. Piontek, Warszawski, and P. Kabat, "Multi-model assessment of water scarcity under climate change," in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (in press), 2013.

[21]        A.-K. S. Mohammed, M. F. Price, A. Abahussain, M. Ahmed, and T. O'Higgins, "Vulnerability assessment of environmental and climate change impacts on water resources in Al Jabal Al Akhdar, Sultanate of Oman," Water, vol. 6, pp. 3118-3135, 2014. Available at:

[22]        R. Singh and R. Kumar, "Vulnerability of water availability in India due to climate change: A bottom-up probabilistic Budyko analysis," Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 42, pp. 9799-9807, 2015. Available at:

[23]        J. P. Lapidez, "Assessment of changes in the water resources budget and hydrological regime of the Pampanga River Basin (Philippines) due to climate change," United Nations Peace and Progress, vol. 3, pp. 15-31, 2016.

[24]        M. Ahmed, Y. Tramblay, L. Hanich, D. Ruelland, and L. Jarlan, "Climate change impacts on surface water resources in the Rheraya catchment (High Atlas, Morocco)," Hydrological Sciences Journal, vol. 62, pp. 979-995, 2017. Available at:

[25]        O. Taikan and R. E. Quiocho, "Economically challenged and water scarce: Identification of global populations most vulnerable to water crises," International Journal of Water Resources Development, vol. 36, pp. 416-428, 2020. Available at: 10.1080/07900627.2019.1698413.

[26]        H. B. Mann, "Nonparametric tests against trend," Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, vol. 13, pp. 245-259, 1945. Available at:

[27]        M. G. Kendall, Rank correlation methods. London: Charles Griffin, 1975.

[28]        M. S. Pervez and G. M. Henebry, "Assessing the impacts of climate and land use and land cover change on the freshwater availability in the Brahmaputra River basin," Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, vol. 3, pp. 285-311, 2015. Available at:

[29]        A. F. Abdussalam, "Potential future risk of cholera due to climate change in Northern Nigeria," African Research Review, vol. 11, pp. 205-218, 2017. Available at:

[30]        A. Nahlah, S. A. Wasimi, and N. Al-Ansari, "Impacts of climate change on water resources of Greater Zab and Lesser Zab Basins, Iraq, using soil and water assessment tool model," International Journal of Environmental, Chemical, Ecological, Geological and Geophysical Engineering, vol. 11, pp. 823-829, 2017. Available at: 1307-6892/10007957.

[31]        A. S. Michael, G. P. Jewitt, and M. L. Toucher, "Scenario-based impacts of land use and climate changes on the hydrology of a lowland rainforest catchment in Ghana, West Africa," Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, pp. 1-27, 2017.

[32]        T. Vetter, J. Reinhardt, M. Flörke, A. van Griensven, F. Hattermann, S. Huang, H. Koch, I. G. Pechlivanidis, S. Plötner, O. Seidou, B. Su, R. W. Vervoort, and V. Krysanova, "Evaluation of sources of uncertainty in projected hydrological changes under climate change in 12 large-scale river basins," Climatic Change, vol. 141, pp. 419-433, 2017. Available at:

[33]        C. S. Vera and L. Díaz, "Anthropogenic influence on summer precipitation trends over South America in CMIP5 models," International Journal of Climatology, vol. 35, pp. 3172-3177, 2015. Available at:

[34]        S. Kumar, V. Merwade, J. L. Kinter, and D. Niyogi, "Evaluation of temperature and precipitation trends and long-term persistence in CMIP5 twentieth-century climate simulations," Journal of Climate, vol. 26, pp. 4168–4185, 2013. Available at:

[35]        A. L. Miguel, O. V. Müller, E. H. Berbery, and G. V. Müller, "Evaluation of CMIP5 retrospective simulations of temperature and precipitation in northeastern Argentina," International Journal of Climatology, vol. 38, pp. e1158-e1175, 2018. Available at:

[36]        D. Bozkurt, M. Rojas, J. P. Boisier, and J. s. Valdivieso, "Climate change impacts on hydroclimatic regimes and extremes over Andean basins in central Chile," Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, pp. 1-29, 2017.

[37]        I. Didovets, A. Bronstert, A. Lobanova, V. Krysanova, S. Snizhko, and C. Maule, "Assessment of climate change impacts on water resources in three representative ukrainian catchments using eco-hydrological modelling," Water (Switzerland), vol. 9, pp. 9030204-9030204, 2017.

[38]        S. L. Gebre and F. Ludwig, "Hydrological response to climate change of the upper blue Nile River Basin: based on IPCC fifth assessment report (AR5)," Journal of Climatology & Weather Forecasting, vol. 3, pp. 1-15, 2015. Available at:

[39]        J. Pengpeng, D. Zhuang, and Y. Wang, "Impacts of temperature and precipitation on the spatiotemporal distribution of water resources in Chinese mega cities: The case of Beijing," Journal of Water and Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 593-612, 2017. Available at:

[40]        S. E. Gneneyougo, A. B. Yao, Y. M. Kouame, and T. A. G. Bi, "Climate change and its impacts on water resources in the Bandama basin, Côte D’ivoire," Hydrology, vol. 4, pp. 1-13, 2017. Available at:

[41]        E. D. Coffel, B. Keith, C. Lesk, R. M. Horton, E. Bower, J. Lee, and J. S. Mankin, "Future hot and dry years worsen Nile Basin water scarcity despite projected precipitation increases," Earth's Future, vol. 7, pp. 967-977, 2019. Available at:

[42]        M. Hosea, S. Julich, S. D. Patil, M. A. McDonald, and K.-H. Feger, "Relative contribution of land use change and climate variability on discharge of upper Mara River, Kenya," Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, vol. 5, pp. 244-260, 2016. Available at: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2015.12.059.

[43]        F. Kara, "Effects of climate change on water resources in Omerli Basin," An Unpublished PhD Thesis of Department of Geodetic and Geographic Information Technology, Submitted to the Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences of Middle East Technical University, Turkey, 2014.

[44]        L. Guoyong, M. Huang, N. Voisin, X. Zhang, G. R. Asrar, and L. R. Leung, "Emergence of new hydrologic regimes of surface water resources in the conterminous United States under future warming," Environmental Research Letters, vol. 11, p. 114003, 2016. Available at:

No any video found for this article.
Salihu A. C. , Abdulkadir A , Nsofor G. N. , Otache, M. Y. (2020). Estimation of Water Stress in Guinea and Sudano-Sahelian Ecological Zones of Nigeria Under Climate Change and Population Growth. International Journal of Hydrology Research, 5(1): 1-16. DOI: 10.18488/journal.108.2020.51.1.16
Climate change and population growth are seen to be the major factors that will shape the pattern of per capita water up to the end of 21st century. The study aimed to project water stress condition in Guinea and Sudano-Sahelian ecological zones of Nigeria under the impacts of climate change and population growth. Firstly, annual water yield was generated using KNMI climate explorer for (2019-2048), (2049-2078) and (2079-2100) under three CO2 emission trajectories. Secondly, population was projected using the Nigeria’s average growth rate of 2.6%. Thirdly, the per capita water was analysed based on water stress index. Mann-Kendal statistical test was used to analyses trends in water stress at 0.05 significant levels. Result demonstrated that the Guinea and Sudano-Sahelian ecological zones of Nigeria will experience significant positive trend in water stress with respect to climate change impact for mid and long-term periods whereas no significant trend under the short-term projection. However, regional trend analysis under the influence of population growth at constant climate observed that there were significant positive trends in water stress for the three projected periods. More so, the same positive trends were obtained under the combined impacts of climate change and population growth in Guinea and Sudano-Sahelian ecological zones of Nigeria. This implies that future water scarcity is imminent and will primarily cause by population growth and secondarily by climate change in the area. The results can act as guidelines for strategic planning for adaptive and mitigation measures to water stress as envisaged by the projection.
Contribution/ Originality
This study is one of very few studies which have investigated regional impacts of climate change and population growth on water stress in Guinea and Sudano-Sahelian ecological zones of Nigeria.