Citations


Contact Us

For Marketing, Sales and Subscriptions Inquiries
2637 E Atlantic Blvd #43110
Pompano Beach, FL 33062
USA

Conference List

International Journal of Geography and Geology

January 2016, Volume 5, 1, pp 10-25

Predicting Changes in the Land Use in Midsize Cities (Case Study: Urmia City of Iran in 2025)

Mostafa Basiri

,

Mina Farokhi Someh

Mostafa Basiri 1
Mina Farokhi Someh 2

  1. Department of architecture, Ilkhchi Branch, Islamic Azad University, Ilkhchi, Iran 1

  2. Young researchers and elite club, Ilkhchi Branch, Islamic Azad University, Ilkhchi, Iran 2

Pages: 10-25

DOI: 10.18488/journal.10/2016.5.1/10.1.10.25

Share :


Abstract:

The Urmia is the capital city of the Western Azerbaijan province that is an urban area and in the northwest of Iran. In recent years, the rapid increase in urban lands and areas in this city has resulted in inconsistent and extensive urban growth. The purpose of the present study is to predict the changes in the land use in midsize cities and apply this prediction on the case study of the Urmia city in Western Azerbaijan. Satellite images and IDRISI Andes have investigated the changes land use in the lands of Urmia city and were used GIS to examine the land use and changes from 1984 to 2011. Then, Markov Chain model and Cellular automate have been used in IDRISI Andes to document and propose a prospect of land use changes in the Urmia city in 2025. With respect to the land use changes, the results of the present study will indicate that the built up area in this city in 1984 was about 2706.57hectares; however, in 2011, the area of built urban zones in the same city has reached 9811.26 hectares. Hence, in 2025, it can be speculated that in the future, the area of built up will reach 12970.53 and the agricultural lands will inevitably be allocated for urban constructions; that is, in 2025, all agricultural lands will undergo a change of land use from farming into urbanization. It should be pointed out that due to the population growth in this area and the available lands, a 3000-hectare increase in the area will be needed to accommodate the increased population.
Contribution/ Originality
•This study explores the sprawl characteristics of land use/cover changes with rapid population growth and accelerating urban growth in Western of Iran.
•There were changes in land use area in midsize city.
•We have used Markov chain-CA analysis to see direction of change in land use pattern.

Keywords:

Land use, Urban sprawl, Markov chains, Cellular automate, Urmia-Iran.

Video:

Reference:

  1. Ahadnejad, R.M., 2000. Evaluation and modelling functional changes of lands using multi-temporal images and GIS. The International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences.
  2. Ahadnejad, R.M., 2010. The evaluation and forecast of land use changes to urban area using multi-temporal satellite image and GIS: A case study on Zanjan, Iran (1984-2011). Hongkong: JIC-TDHM-GIS 2010.
  3. Almeida, C.M., C.L. Pennachin, A.M.V. Monteiro, G. Câmara, B.S. Soares-Filho, G.C. Cerqueira and M. Batty, 2002. Stochastic cellular automata modeling of urban land use dynamics: Empirical development and estimation, computers. Environment and Urban Systems, 27(5): 481- 509.
  4. Anderson, J.R., E. Hardey, J. Roach and R.E. Witmer, 1976. A land use and land cover classification system for use with remote sensor data. Washington, DC: US Geological Survey Professional Paper.
  5. Athari, K., 2000. Toward the efficiency of government's interference. Economy Quarterly, 18. Tehran: National Organization for Land and Housing.
  6. Ayodeji, O.Z., 2006. Change detection in land use and land cover using remote sensing data and GIS, (A Case Study of Ilorin and its Environs in Kwara State). The Department of Geography, University of Ibadan in Partial Fulfillment for the Award of Master of Science.
  7. Bahraini, H., 2007. What is the city of Tehran like and how should it be? Journal Environment, 15: 83-97.
  8. Baldemir, E., F. Kaya and S.T. Kasmer, 2013. A management strategy within sustainable city context: Cittaslow. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 99: 75-84.
  9. Batty, M., H. Couclelis and M. Eichen, 1997. Urban systems as cellular automata. Environment and Planning B, 24(2): 159-164.
  10. Betts, M.G., S.E. Franklin and R. Taylor, 2003. Interpretation of landscape pattern and habitat change for local indicator species using satellite imagery and geographic information system data in New Brunswick, Canada. Can J Forest Res, 33(10): 1821–1831.
  11. Bhatta, B., 2009. Analysis of urban growth pattern using remote sensing and GIS: A case study of Kolkata, India. Intl J. Remote Sensing, 30(18): 4733–4746.
  12. Census Iran Statistical Center, 2005, 2011. General housing and population census. Available from www.amar.org.ir.
  13. Chang, C.L. and J.C. Chang, 2006. Markov model and cellular automata for vegetation. Journal of Geographical Research, 45: 45-57.
  14. Christiansen, P. and T. Loftsgarden, 2011. Drivers behind urban sprawl in Europe, Institute of Transport Economics Report 1136. Norwegian Center for Transpot Research.
  15. Couch, C. and J. Karech, 2007. The consequences of urban sprawl: A case study of Wirral. Merseyside, Liverpool: John Moores University. pp: 1-21.
  16. Couch, C., J. Karecha, H. Nuissl and D. Rink, 2005. Decline and sprawl: An evolving type of urban development – observed in Liverpool and Leipzig. European Planning Studies, 13(1): 117– 136.
  17. Cuclelis, H., 1997. Form cellular automata to urban models: New principles for development and implementation. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 24(2): 165-174.
  18. Deep, S.H. and S. Akansha, 2014. Urban sprawl modeling using cellular automata. Egyptian Journal of Remote Sensing and Space Sciences, 17(2): 179–187.
  19. Downs, A., 1999. Some realities about sprawl and urban decline. Housing Policy Debate, 10(4): 955-974.
  20. Ewing, R., 1997. Angeles-style sprawl desirable. Journal of the American Planning, Association, 63(1): 107–126.
  21. Farina, A., 1999. Principles and methods in landscape ecology. London, U.K: Chapman & Hall.
  22. Fisher, 1965. Cambridge history of Iran 1968 on. Cambridge: The Land of Iran.
  23. Foody, G.M., 2000. Mapping land cover from remotely sensed data with a softened feed forward neural network classification. Journal of Intelligent and Robotic System, 29(4): 433-449.
  24. Foran, M., 2009. Expansive Discourses: Urban Sprawl in calgary, 1945-1978. Edmonton: Athabasca University Press.
  25. Franklin, S.E., E.E. Dickson, D.R. Farr, M.J. Hansen and L.M. Moskal, 2000. Quantification of landscape change from satellite remote sensing. Forest Chron, 76(6): 877–886.
  26. Fulton, W., R. Pendall, M. Nguyen and A. Harrison, 2001. Who sprawls most? How growth patterns differ across the U.S., Center for urban and metropolitan policy. Washington, D.C: The Booking Institution.
  27. Galster, G., R. Hanson, H. Wolman, S. Coleman and J. Freihage, 2000. Wrestling sprawl to the ground: Defining and measuring an elusive concept. Hous Policy Debate, 12(4): 681–717.
  28. Gergel, S.E., M.G. Turner, J.R. Miller, J.M. Melack and E.H. Stanley, 2002. Landscape indicators of human impacts to riverine systems. Aquat Sci, 64(2): 118–128.
  29. Gong, W., Y. Li, F. Wenyi and S. Philp, 2015. Analysis and simulation of land use spatial pattern in Harbin prefecture based on trajectories and cellular automata-Markov modelling. International Journal of applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, 34: 207- 216.
  30. Guan, D., H. Li, T. Inohae, W. Su, T. Nagaie and K. Hokao, 2011. Modeling urban land use change by the integration of cellular automaton and Markov model. Ecological Modelling, 222(20–22): 3761- 3772.
  31. Hansen, M.J., S.E. Franklin, C.G. Woudsma and M. Peterson, 2001. Caribou habitat mapping and fragmentation analysis using landsat MSS, TM, and GIS data in North Columbia mountains, British Columbia, Canada. Remote Sens Environ, 77(1): 50–65.
  32. Hess, G.R., 2001. Just what is sprawl, anyway? Available from www. ncsu.edu /~ grhess.
  33. Hortas- Rico, M., 2014. Urban sprawl and municipal budgets in Spain: A dynamic panel data analysis. Papers in Regional Science, 93(4): 843–864.
  34. Igegnoli, V., 2002. Landscape ecology: A widening foundation. New York-Berlin: Springer-Verlag.
  35. Kamusoko, C. and M. Aniya, 2007. Land use/cover change and landscape fragmentation analysis in the Bindura district, Zimbabwe. Land Degradation& Development, 18(2): 221–233.
  36. Longley, P.A. and M. Victor, 2000. On the measurement and generalization of urban form. Environmental and Planning A, 32(3): 473-488.
  37. Lu, D., P. Mausel, E. Brondizio and E. Moran, 2004. Change detection techniques. Intl. J. Remote Sens, 25(12): 2365-2407.
  38. Malpezzi, S. and W.K. Guo, 2001. Measuring ?sprawl:‘ Alternative measures of urban form in U.S. metropolitan areas, the center for urban land economics research. Madison, WI: University of Wisconsin.
  39. Mirbageri, E., A. Abkar and R.A. Asadi, 2005. An investigation of the feasibility of producing a map of plant coverage in the scale of 1:5000 in the province of Isfahan by MODIST. Proceeding of the Geomatics Conference. The Mapping Organization, Tehran.
  40. Narumalani, S., D.R. Mishra and R.G. Rothwell, 2004. Change detection and landscape metrics for inferring anthropogenic processes in the greater EFMO area. Remote Sens Environ, 91(3–4): 478–489.
  41. Olujimi, J., 2009. Evolving a planning strategy for managing urban sprawl in Nigeria. J Hum Ecol, 25(3): 201-208.
  42. Shafizadeh, M.H. and H. Marco, 2013. Spatiotemporal urbanization processes in the megacity of Mumbai, India: A Markov chains-cellular automata urban growth model. Applied Geography, 40: 140-149.
  43. Sudhira, H.S. and T.V. Ramachandra, 2007. Characterizing urban sprawl from remote sensing data and using landscape metrics. Proceedings of 10th International Conference on Computers in Urban Planning and Urban Management, Iguassu Falls, PR Brazil, July 11–13.
  44. Vicari, J., 2007. Ecologie urbaine. Paris: Edition Infolio.
  45. Yang, X., X.Q. Zheng and R. Chen, 2014. A land use change model: Integrating landscape pattern indexes and Markov- CA. Ecological Modelling, 283: 1-7.
  46. Yavari, A.R., A. Sotoudeh and P. Parivar, 2007. Urban environmental quality and landscape structure in arid mountain environment. International Journal of Environmental Research, 1(4): 325-340.

Statistics:

Google Scholor ideas Microsoft Academic Search bing Google Scholor

Funding:

Competing Interests:

Acknowledgement:


Related Article

( 1 ) Predicting Changes in the Land Use in Midsize Cities (Case Study: Urmia City of Iran in 2025)
( 3 ) Analysis of the Factors Affecting Changes in Land Cover Patterns in Rural Districts in East of Guilan Province (Iran) for Foresight
( 4 ) Assessment of Landuse and Landcover Changes and its Implications to Flooding Along Omambala Flood Plain, Anambra State
( 5 ) Land Use Change Modelling In Developing Countries: Issues And Prospects
( 6 ) Land Degradation Due To Mining: The Gunda Scenario
( 7 ) Governments Policy Reforms from 1970s Onward and It’s Implications on Land Use and Land Cover With the Help of GIS And RS Techniques In Eastern Tigray, Ethiopia
( 9 ) Landfill Site Selection Using Simple Additive Weighting (SAW) Method and Artificial Neural Network Method; A Case Study from Lorestan Province, Iran
( 10 ) The Influence of Climate Variability on Hadejia-Nguru Wetlands, Yobe State, Nigeria
( 12 ) Erosion Surfaces of the Land Between Iznik-Mekece (Turkey)
( 13 ) The Impact of Land Use on Spatial Variations of Begging in District Lahore_Pakistan
( 14 ) Landslide Hazard Evaluation and Zonation of Karaj-Chalus Road (North of Iran)
( 15 ) Political Economy and Stakeholder Perspectives on Inclusive Low-Carbon Energy Transition: Case of Kenyan Rangelands
( 16 ) Using Refined Phosphogypsum to Replace Natural Gypsum in Portland Cement Production in Vietnam
( 17 ) Post Disaster Recovery Process of Landslides in Developing Countries: A Case Study of Aranayake Landslide - Sri Lanka
( 18 ) Location Mapping of Hydrothermal Alteration Using Landsat 8 Data: A Case of Study in Prestea Huni Valley District, Ghana
( 19 ) Occupational Health Exposure and Perceived Effects of Portland Cement Dust Pollution on Cement Factory Workers
( 20 ) An Eleven Years Analysis of the Seasonal Dynamics of Urban Heat Island (UHI) Intensity (2004-2014)
( 23 ) A Comparative Study of Physical and Chemical Parameters in Sistan and Baluchistan University Wastewater and Its Re-Use of Wastewater
( 24 ) Environmental Conservation and Use of Economic Incentives to Conserve Biological Resources in Nigeria
( 25 ) Strategies for Tourism Development in National Parks with the Use of Swot Model (Case: Golestan National Park)
( 26 ) An Exploratory Study of Effects of Prepaid Metering and Energy Related Behaviour among Ghanaian Household
( 28 ) Urban Park Use, Quality Evaluation, and Resident Satisfaction Indicators in the City of Zahedan, Iran
( 30 ) The Problems of Legal Regulations, Protection and Use of Groundwater (International Experience and Practice in Kazakhstan)
( 31 ) Prioritization of Museums in Terms of Performance in Attracting Tourists (Case Study: Museum of North of Sistan and Baluchestan Province)
( 32 ) Possibilities of Creating Swimming Pools with Zero Co2 Emissions Due to Energy Use in Them
( 33 ) The Impact of Al-Yarmouk University on the Commercial Uses Types (Retail Activities) of Shafeeq Irshedat Street (University Street in Irbid City- Jordan)
( 34 ) Spatial Appraisal of Problems and Prospects of Fertilizer Use for Agriculture on the Environment in Mbieri, Mbaitoli Local Government Area, Imo State Nigeria
( 36 ) Did Global Warming and Climate Change Cause the Degradation of Lake Chad, Africa's Most Important 'Ecological Catastrophe'?
( 37 ) The Use of Indigenous Methods in Seasonal Climate Prediction and Adaptation among Farmers in Atisbo Local Government Area of Oyo State, Nigeria
( 38 ) Geographical Analysis of Household Waste Generation and Disposal in Taraba State, Northeast Nigeria
( 41 ) Expanded of Informal Jobs in Iranian Border Cities, Case: Zabol-Iran
( 43 ) Attritional Structures the Major Factor in Increasing Endangerment by Earthquakes in Cities
( 44 ) Optimal Density Determination of Bouguer Anomaly Using Fractal Analysis (Case of Study: Charak Area, Iran)
( 48 ) Residential Housing Quality Assessment Based on the Criteria of Sustainable Housing (Case Study: Residential Complex of 100 Units of Region 1 City of Zahedan)
( 49 ) Zoning of Natural and Man-Made Disasters for Relief and Rescue Centers Site Selection Using the Model Logic (Case Study: Guilan Rural Area)
( 51 ) Inversion of Electrical Resistivity Data by VES Method for Water Exploring Case Study: South West of Iran
( 52 ) Problems of Mechanized Tunneling In Gassy Ground Conditions a Case Study: Nousoud Water Transmission Tunnel
( 54 ) A Study on River Ecotourism Development: Case Study: Karaj River
( 57 ) Indicators of Sustainability in Vernacular Settlements Hot Dry Region of Iran, [Case Study: Kerman-Meymand]
( 60 ) An Investigation of Mineralogy and Microscopic Structure in Kerman City Sediments
( 61 ) Flood Hazard Assessment and Decisions Support Using Geographic Information System: A Case Study of Uyo Capital City, Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria
( 62 ) A Model of Optimal Time-of-Day Pricing of Electricity under Diverse Welfare Assumptions
( 63 ) An Estimate of the Tensile Strength Based On P-Wave Velocity and Schmidt Hardness Rebound Number
( 66 ) The Relationship Between P-Wave Velocity and Slake Durability Index