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Does Gold Price Lead or Lags Islamic Stock Market and Strategy Commodity Price? A Study from Malaysia

Siti Nurulhuda Ibrahim


Rahayu Hasan


Amirudin Mohd Nor

Siti Nurulhuda Ibrahim 1 ,

Rahayu Hasan 1 Amirudin Mohd Nor 1 
  1. Universiti Teknologi Mara Melaka, Faculty of Business and Management Malaysia 1

Pages: 146-163

DOI: 10.18488/journal.62.2018.56.146.163

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Article History:

Received: 09 July, 2018
Revised: 15 August, 2018
Accepted: 21 September, 2018
Published: 01 November, 2018


There is a few claimed in literature and financial media that gold, Islamic stock and commodity market provide as hedging tool against inflation. Therefore, derive from this similarity characteristic, we are interested to know which among of this investment variety are the leader and laggard in the Malaysian market. Among of them, numerous studies have been done on gold as a hedge against inflation, but almost non-existence amount of research endeavor to analyze the lead-lag of this precious metal with other investment avenues. Thus, several methods are employed to answer the issue of this study which are unit root tests and Johansen’s cointegration test, followed by long-run structural modelling (LRSM) and vector error-correction modelling (VECM), variance decompositions (VDCs), impulse response functions (IRFs) and persistence profile (PP). The results showed that spot Kijang Gold lags all investment avenues in Malaysia. It indicated that the performance of the Kijang Gold is dependent on FTSE Bursa Malaysia Emas Shariah Index, macroeconomic variables and strategic commodities. This provides some important policy implications in the regulation of the Kijang Gold itself whereby FTSE Bursa Malaysia Emas Shariah Index performance and other variables are among the key predictive inputs on the expected performance of the Kijang Gold. Hence, we humbly suggest to the investors and investment portfolio managers to include Islamic shariah equities, crude palm oil and crude oil commodities as part of their investment portfolios as may act as diversification and hedging tool especially for an investment portfolio which consists of Kijang Gold and forex, as we had identified these latter investment avenues as the most follower (endogenous) variables.
Contribution/ Originality
This study is one of very few studies which have investigated the lead-lag analysis among these three-investment avenues by using VECM, VDCs and other related techniques. Furthermore, this study attempts to fill the gap in empirical studies and associated theory which remains unexplored and not broadly discussed in the literature.


Gold, Kijang gold, Malaysian gold, FTSE Bursa Malaysia, Islamic stock market, Crude palm oil, Crude oil price, Commodity market, Macroeconomic variables, Lead-lag analysis.



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This study received no specific financial support.

Competing Interests:

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.


We would like to extend our acknowledgment for the support given by Division of Research and Industrial Linkages, Universiti Teknologi MARA Melaka, Malaysia for supporting us with a guide and advice that make us capable of accomplishing this research paper.

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( 317 ) Financial Development and Economic Growth in Nigeria: New Evidence from a Threshold Autoregressive and Asymmetric Analysis
( 318 ) Child Support Enforcement and Infants Health Outcomes
( 319 ) Factors Influencing Profitability of Commercial Banks in Tanzania: A Case Study of CRDB Bank Plc
( 321 ) Nexus among Foreign Exchange Reserve, Remittance and Trade Openness: An Empirical Investigation in the Case of Bangladeshi Economy
( 322 ) Testing the Validity of Arbitrage Pricing Theory: A Study on Dhaka Stock Exchange Bangladesh
( 323 ) Employee Creative Behaviour: A Predictive Study of Perceived Relational Injustice and Workplace Ostracism among Public Sector Workers
( 324 ) Is Foreign Direct Investment the Way Forward for Manufacturing Sector Renaissance in Nigeria?
( 325 ) Analysis of Synergies in Indian Corporate M&A Deals: A Logit Regression Approach
( 327 ) World Governance Indicators and Fraud: Evidence from One Belt One Road Countries
( 328 ) Fear of Covid-19 and Intentions towards Adopting E-Health Services: Exploring the Technology Acceptance Model in the Scenario of Pandemic
( 329 ) Economic and Noneconomic Forces on Remittance Receiving: A Panel Analysis of Top Remittance Sending Countries towards Bangladesh
( 330 ) CSR Themes Quality, Good Corporate Governance, and Earnings Management: Evidence from Indonesia
( 331 ) Income Smoothing, Earnings Management and the Credibility of Accounting Information
( 332 ) Does Buyer Power Contribute to Environmental Sustainability Performance in Supply Chains?
( 333 ) The Influence of Organizational Culture, Communication and Work Satisfaction on Organizational Commitments: A Case Study of Lecturers at Yayasan Pendidikan Borobudur
( 334 ) Relational Capabilities under Moderating and Mediating Effects to Understand their Impacts on Firm Financial Performance
( 336 ) Effects of Green Human Resource Management on Employee Green Behavior: Moderating Role of Employee Environmental Knowledge
( 337 ) Inflationary Rate in Nigeria: Impact of Foreign Capital Inflows
( 338 ) Facing the Challenges of Covid-19 in the Egyptian Banking Sector: The Role of Bricoleurs in Achieving Organizational Innovations via Learning through Improvisation
( 339 ) Modeling and Estimation of Cumulative Abnormal Return using VECM
( 340 ) Human Research Management: Effect of Covid-19 On Workers in the UK Who Have Previously Lost One or Both Arms
( 341 ) Identifying Combinations of Individual Governance Indicators Essential for Attracting International Capital Flows to Asian Economies
( 342 ) The Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic on the Stock Market Performance: A Study on Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE)
( 343 ) Performance Evaluation of Chinese Commercial Banks Based on the Malmquist Index
( 345 ) A Model of Strategic Thinking: Islamic and Iranian Perspective
( 346 ) Measuring the Quality of Islamic Banks Services and Its Impact on Customers Satisfaction A Survey Study on the Islamic Banks Customers in Lattakia-Syria
( 355 ) Kashmir Peasant Economy under Dogra’s: A Case Study of Agrarian Produce and Livestock 1885-1925 A.D
( 357 ) Reminiscing Stock Splits Announcement: A Malaysian Case
( 358 ) Testing the Random Walk: The Case of Hong Kong Stock Exchange
( 359 ) Earnings Management and Stock Market Returns
( 362 ) The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on the Debt, Liquidity, Growth, and Volume of Companies in Palestine Stock Exchange
( 363 ) Studying the Integration of Damascus Securities Exchange with Selected Stock Markets
( 366 ) Regime Changes in the Volatility of Stock Markets
( 369 ) Effect of Savings Deposit Rate on Stock Market Capitalization in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation
( 371 ) Financial Risks in Turkish Banking Industry: A Panel Data Analaysis on Istanbul Stock Exchange
( 372 ) Cross-Time-Frequency Analysis of Volatility Interdependence among Stock and Currency Markets
( 373 ) Modelling Stock Returns Volatility and Asymmetric News Effect: A Global Perspective
( 376 ) Impacts of the U.S.-China Trade Conflicts News on U.S. and Chinese Stock Returns
( 380 ) The Dynamics of Land Market and Food Security in Malawi
( 398 ) Determinants of Exchange Rate in Nigeria: A Comparison of the Official and Parallel Market Rates