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Animal Review

September 2017, Volume 4, 3, pp 45-52

Forecasting Goat Milk Production in Turkey Using Artificial Neural Networks and Box-Jenkins Models

Ferhan KAYGISIZ

,

Funda Hatice SEZGIN

Ferhan KAYGISIZ 1

Funda Hatice SEZGIN 2

  1. Istanbul University, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Department of Animal Breeding and Husbandry, Avcılar, Istanbul, Turkey 1

  2. Istanbul University, Faculty of Engineering, Department of Industrial Engineering, Avcılar, Istanbul, Turkey 2

Pages: 45-52

DOI: 10.18488/journal.ar.2017.43.45.52

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Article History:

Received: 09 October, 2017
Revised: 20 December, 2017
Accepted: 26 December, 2017
Published: 29 December, 2017


Abstract:

The demand for goat milk has gradually increased in Turkey in recent years and dairy goat breeding began to be seen as an alternative investment area. The aim of the study is to create the data that will contribute to policy formulation in the stockbreeding industry by making a 10-year forecast of output pertaining to the goat milk production in Turkey. In the study, the annual data of the goat milk production in Turkey during the time period 1961 and 2016 obtained from Turkish Statistical Institute and Food and Agriculture Organization was utilized. Box-Jenkins estimation models and artificial neural networks model were used to forecast the production of goat milk. It was identified that artificial neural networks model gave the best result and prospective estimations were made through this model. As a result of the study, the projected value of milk production for 2026 was found to be 495,536.1 tons. Following the forecasts, it was calculated that the average rate of increase in the goat milk production will be 0.12%.
Contribution/ Originality
The study was conducted to estimate the amount of goat milk production in Turkey until 2026. Box-Jenkins and artificial neural networks models were used as prediction models. The results of this study contribute in the literature about the goat breeding production policies.

Keywords:

Artificial neural networks model, Box - Jenkins model, Forecasting, Goat milk., Time series, Milk production

Reference:


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Funding:

This study received no specific financial support.

Competing Interests:

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Acknowledgement:

Both authors contributed equally to the conception and design of the study.

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