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Does Gold Price Lead or Lags Islamic Stock Market and Strategy Commodity Price? A Study from Malaysia

Siti Nurulhuda Ibrahim

,

Rahayu Hasan

,

Amirudin Mohd Nor

Siti Nurulhuda Ibrahim 1 ,

Rahayu Hasan 1 Amirudin Mohd Nor 1 
  1. Universiti Teknologi Mara Melaka, Faculty of Business and Management Malaysia 1

Pages: 146-163

DOI: 10.18488/journal.62.2018.56.146.163

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Article History:

Received: 09 July, 2018
Revised: 15 August, 2018
Accepted: 21 September, 2018
Published: 01 November, 2018


Abstract:

There is a few claimed in literature and financial media that gold, Islamic stock and commodity market provide as hedging tool against inflation. Therefore, derive from this similarity characteristic, we are interested to know which among of this investment variety are the leader and laggard in the Malaysian market. Among of them, numerous studies have been done on gold as a hedge against inflation, but almost non-existence amount of research endeavor to analyze the lead-lag of this precious metal with other investment avenues. Thus, several methods are employed to answer the issue of this study which are unit root tests and Johansen’s cointegration test, followed by long-run structural modelling (LRSM) and vector error-correction modelling (VECM), variance decompositions (VDCs), impulse response functions (IRFs) and persistence profile (PP). The results showed that spot Kijang Gold lags all investment avenues in Malaysia. It indicated that the performance of the Kijang Gold is dependent on FTSE Bursa Malaysia Emas Shariah Index, macroeconomic variables and strategic commodities. This provides some important policy implications in the regulation of the Kijang Gold itself whereby FTSE Bursa Malaysia Emas Shariah Index performance and other variables are among the key predictive inputs on the expected performance of the Kijang Gold. Hence, we humbly suggest to the investors and investment portfolio managers to include Islamic shariah equities, crude palm oil and crude oil commodities as part of their investment portfolios as may act as diversification and hedging tool especially for an investment portfolio which consists of Kijang Gold and forex, as we had identified these latter investment avenues as the most follower (endogenous) variables.
Contribution/ Originality
This study is one of very few studies which have investigated the lead-lag analysis among these three-investment avenues by using VECM, VDCs and other related techniques. Furthermore, this study attempts to fill the gap in empirical studies and associated theory which remains unexplored and not broadly discussed in the literature.

Keywords:

Gold, Kijang gold, Malaysian gold, FTSE Bursa Malaysia, Islamic stock market, Crude palm oil, Crude oil price, Commodity market, Macroeconomic variables, Lead-lag analysis.

Reference:


Statistics:

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Funding:

This study received no specific financial support.

Competing Interests:

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Acknowledgement:

We would like to extend our acknowledgment for the support given by Division of Research and Industrial Linkages, Universiti Teknologi MARA Melaka, Malaysia for supporting us with a guide and advice that make us capable of accomplishing this research paper.

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